Weekly Poker Hand #241

Flopping a set is nice, especially when your opponent is drawing nearly dead and sticks around all the way to the river.

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2 thoughts on “Weekly Poker Hand #241”

  1. 2 questions about this hand on the river.

    1) you say this game is pretty splashy so maybe that played into Jouhan’s decision to raise the river, but in a typical $1/3 game, with straight and backdoor flushes coming in, is it reasonable to expect to never get called by worse when raising the river with bottom set here? I see most people just calling in situations like this for fear of the AI re-raise (see next question), but is that severely missing out on value in most cases?

    2) If Gina were to go all-in over the $240 on the river, it would be $381 for Jouhan to call for a $1432 pot. Maybe this game is different (we see Gina would be bluffing is she went AI), but again in a typical $1/3 game, if the river bet gets raised, is assuming people are bluffing more than 26.6% of the time in this spot unrealistic?

    1. 1. I think this board is coordinated enough such that sets should not raise river. Especially on coordinated boards, it will be difficult to get called by worse.
      2. I agree that most small stakes players are not capable of raising the river nearly often enough as a bluff. Folding to river raises against almost everyone with all but the absolute best hands is usually ideal.

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