Flopping a set is nice, especially when your opponent is drawing nearly dead and sticks around all the way to the river.
If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to sign up for a free 7-day trial membership at PokerCoaching.com for an interactive learning experience from Jonathan Little.
To get my audiobooks for free, check out JonathanLittlePoker.com/free.
To get the audio-only version, please subscribe to my podcast on iTunes.
If you have any questions or comments about this hand, feel free to ask in the comments section!
Thank you for watching. Be sure to check back next week at JonathanLittlePoker.com for another episode of Weekly Poker Hand.
2 questions about this hand on the river.
1) you say this game is pretty splashy so maybe that played into Jouhan’s decision to raise the river, but in a typical $1/3 game, with straight and backdoor flushes coming in, is it reasonable to expect to never get called by worse when raising the river with bottom set here? I see most people just calling in situations like this for fear of the AI re-raise (see next question), but is that severely missing out on value in most cases?
2) If Gina were to go all-in over the $240 on the river, it would be $381 for Jouhan to call for a $1432 pot. Maybe this game is different (we see Gina would be bluffing is she went AI), but again in a typical $1/3 game, if the river bet gets raised, is assuming people are bluffing more than 26.6% of the time in this spot unrealistic?
1. I think this board is coordinated enough such that sets should not raise river. Especially on coordinated boards, it will be difficult to get called by worse.
2. I agree that most small stakes players are not capable of raising the river nearly often enough as a bluff. Folding to river raises against almost everyone with all but the absolute best hands is usually ideal.