Weekly Poker Hand, Episode 25

In this episode, I show you how to push your opponents around when it is clear they do not want to go broke.
To get more info about the webinar where I discuss how to exploit weak opponents, check out JonathanLittlePoker.com/monsterstack

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If you have any questions or comments about this hand, feel free to ask in the comments section!

Thank you for watching.

9 Comments

  • Michael Harris says:

    This is an amazing poker lesson, thank you Jonathan. I loved your book 2014 WSOP Main Event, as well as a few webinars of yours I’ve seen. My problem is: when I play a WSOP event, I don’t want to get busted out very early either. People like you know this and apply the heat. But what I’ve learned from you is that if this is the case, then adjust my strategy. Exhibit a lot of pot control and get-to-a-showdown mentality when I have a huge one pair hand, to minimize my opponent’s (someone like you) ability to blow me off it. Aces is awesome to have in a pre-flop raising war, but essentially just a bluff catcher later on. Thanks again.

    • I am glad you have found my educational products to be helpful. You are right about the pros trying to occasionally blow players off hands. It is great that you are making adjustments. Good luck in your games!

  • Alec says:

    Wasn’t really thrilled with the percentages you used. You can expect to be around 45% against a random ace, not really a 50/50. And when you are called I definitely don’t think you maintain as high as 40%. Once you’re called you can probbly expect only the clubs to be live, knocking you back to like 30% or so. Plus when you’re against a set you may only have 8 outs and he’ll still have a 10 out redraw if you spike the turn. I understand that based on your thinking you somewhat ruled out a set, which helps, but I thought that saying you’re still 40% WHEN called, was a bit generous.

    • Against even a nitty range of AA, JJ, 44, AK-AT, and A4, 4c3c has 43% equity. If my opponent folds the strong unpaired top pairs, I have only 35% but then my fold equity goes through the roof, quite likely to the point that making this play with any to cards would be profitable. Also, against A7 (a random A), I have 51% equity. You seem not be using a broken equity calculator.

  • Alec says:

    Ah, that’s true 51%, I think I calculated based on his other card being a club which was unfair. And yah, with him folding any naked top pair your fold equity is more than comfy.
    Just for the sake of argument though, let’s consider flatting on the flop. As it turns out his raise to 5k really made your shove a great option because it was an obvious info-raise and also made your shove very relevant to what the pot size now is. The size of his raise, however, was rather uncommon and there are some more likely routs that would have put you in a tougher spot. If he raises to say 3,500-4k it no longer looks like an info-raise and a re-raise on your part might now be out of the question as him having a set looks much more likely. So now you’d have to flat, (although you may already disagree with that) without really knowing where you are, out of position, and have a similar problem if he fires the turn big, which would now really start to look like a set. I just feel like the raise to 1,700 had the potential of betting yourself off of your draw on the next street. Whereas flatting the flop lets you call just about any turn bet with so much money behind in an uninflated pot. Plus considering he wasn’t a great player you’ll make your money when you hit even if he only does have AK, AQ and even if it’s a club. I just thought that semi bluffing against an average opponent brings up the possibility of getting your money in marginally, whereas as waiting to hit before getting money in costs less and still gets paid turn and river value by an average player. Aaaaanyway, just wanted to bring up another option, thanks for replying so quick.

    • You say I would have to flat without knowing where I am, but when I have bottom pair and a flush draw versus a raise, I realize that I am behind my opponent’s current made hand. You seem to not be factoring my huge amount of fold equity into the equation. I strongly suggest you sit down and run lots of math based on my opponent’s probably ranges and see what happens. While I WILL get money in marginally when my opponent is actually willing to commit his stack, I will make him fold a huge percentage of the time, allowing me to make a huge amount of profit compared to calling, which effectively requires me to hit my draw in order to win.

  • Alec says:

    Alright fair enough, i meant now knowing where you are in the sense that you don’t know know if it’s as strong as a set or just a medium top pair. Obviously your 4s are not leading. Just one more question and i’ll leave ya alone tho :). If he does raise to only 3700ish, what line would you take?

    • This is a tough one because he would be giving me excellent pot odds purely to draw to improve. That being said, I would still assume my opponent was butchering a decent top pair and I would go all-in.

  • Alec says:

    Alright man, thanks

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