I was happy to flop middle pair but unhappy to river a set.
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3 thoughts on “Weekly Poker Hand #131”
you forgot two combos of T9 suited that are consistent with his line, can’t fold this river
Why would you not bet the flop when IP. When you check back the flop your hand is somewhat face up, which is maybe what you want if you want to call substantial turn and river bets. Betting the flop, checking back the turn and calling a river bet involves about the same outlay.
Betting the flop disguises your hand, you could have a strong, mediocre, weak or air hand. Admittedly when you check back the turn your hand once again becomes face up, but when you bet the flop Villain is less likely to lead the turn. I can see that on this flop it is difficult for Villain to have nothing even if it is only over cards – his runner runner straight hardly qualifies as even a back door draw.
If a player consistently bets top pair and checks second pair he is exploitable. If he will fold second pair to two bets we can get him to fold. If he will call two bets with second pair we can value bet.
In general, if you are trying to develop a balanced strategy, you should check with your marginal made hands and junk, as both of these ranges do not want to put significant money in the pot. You should bet with your top pairs and draws because those don’t mind getting money in. Your marginal made range includes some top pairs down to bottom pairs, and perhaps Ace and King high. Some of this range calls any turn bet and some of that range calls any river bet. Obviously you improve sometimes with these hands, so it is not as if you always have exactly middle pair and worse, as you seem to imply. If the opponent decides to only bet for value, he will not bet often enough, allowing us to see cheap showdowns, which is the goal. If he bets too often, we will call down often enough to make that unprofitable. By situating your ranges intelligently, you make it difficult for your opponent. If you instead continuation bet everything, your opponent has an easy exploit of check-raising and if he defends often enough, that is usually not going to work out because my range will be too junk-heavy.
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