A Bit Too Optimistic?

analyze-poker-jonathan-littleThe following hand took place in the €5000 six-handed turbo event, which always takes place on the last day of European Poker Tour series to give the players one last chance at a nice score.

With blinds at 200/400 with a 50 ante, I raised to 1,000 out of my 50,000 stack with Qd-Jd from the cutoff seat. Deep stacked 6-handed NLHE is fun! The Small Blind, a young European kid, and the Big Blind, a tight player, called. I thought my opponents’ ranges could easily be incredibly wide, although they were probably not too out of line.  

The flop came Kc-Tc-4c, giving me a weak open-ended straight draw. My opponents checked to me. It is somewhat likely that one of my opponents has either a pair or a draw that they would not fold to a flop continuation bet. Since I have a bit of equity if I improve to either a pair or a straight, I do not want to face a check-raise that would force me to fold. So, I decided to check.

The turn was the (Kc-Tc-4c)-Qs, giving me a pair. My opponents again checked to me. At this point, I think I have the best hand a decent amount of the time. I do not want to allow a club or Jack to come on the river that could easily give one of my opponents the best hand. I decided to bet 1,500 into the 3,450 pot. Looking back, I think a slightly larger bet of 2,000 would have been better because it would induce my opponents to fold their junky draws that have a lot of equity against me, such as 9s-7c. Only the Small Blind called my 1,500 bet.

The river was the (Kc-Tc-4c-Qs)-6c, putting four clubs on the board. To my surprise, the Small Blind bet 3,500 into the 6,450 pot. While this would normally be a trivial fold because I lose to any flush and any pair better than my middle pair, it is important to think about how my range appears to my opponent. When I checked behind on the flop, my opponent should assume that I do not have the Ace of clubs. If I do not have the nuts, that drastically decreases the number of hands I can call with on the river. I made the assumption that my opponent would bet with the Ace of clubs on the turn once the flop checked through. I was not sure if he would value bet lead with the Queen or Jack of clubs on the river. You will find that most players will not value bet with marginal flushes in this spot because they will typically only get called when they are beat. Of course, my opponent could be turning a hand better than mine, such as Kd-9d, into a bluff. The idea that neither of us has the nut flush made me think that my opponent should be bluffing more often than normal, hoping to put me in a tough spot with a weak flush or a one-pair hand.

Given my pot odds, which dictate that I need to have the best hand 26% of the time to justify calling, I decided to call. While I am unsure exactly how often I have the best hand, I am sure I will win more than 26% of the time against a European kid. Luckily for me, my opponent turned over Js-Ts for a bluff, awarding me a nice pot.

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5 thoughts on “A Bit Too Optimistic?”

  1. I think the SB would valuebet Qc quite comfortably/ frequently (given your reasoning for you being capped (Ac very likely removal).

    As for him betting Jc .. it gets a lot closer, IMO as I think you would C-bet quite a few QcXx combos (AxQc, QcKx, QcJx, Qx9x(?) )

    I would not assume that you open a whole lot more offsuit QXs in the CO as a default..

    Interesting spot/ I would probably fold; but … I am a NIT 🙂

  2. EDIT: *As for him betting Jc .. it gets closer,, but he should still VB those, IMO as I think you would C-bet quite a few QcXx combos (AxQc, QcKx, QcJx, Qcx9x(?) ) (reasonably often)

  3. why is J 10 considered a bluff when he still had some equity with 10’s ? Unless you meant semi bluff and not total

    1. A semi-bluff is a bet with a hand that is likely behind at the moment but can improve on a future betting round. Since there are no more betting rounds, you cannot semi-bluff. A bet with JT with no flush is a bet designed to make me fold better one pair hands and perhaps very weak flushes. When you are betting on the river, it is either for value or as a bluff. There are almost no hands worse than JT that can call a river bet and there are better hands that can fold, so he is bluffing.

  4. Love all of these hand examples that let you play the hand. When I move back home (I’ve been traveling) I’ll definitely check out poker coaching.com Thanks for all this content Jonathan

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